Purpose = global literacy— help people become conversant with the political, economic, social context of the current day
Note: geopolitics = competition among countries for power and influence
Part I: The Essential History
From the Thirty Years’ War to the Outbreak of World War I (1618-1914)
Thirty Years’ War & resulting Treaty of Westphalia (1648) → established principle of sovereignty, modern int’l system
Nations have borders to be respected, governments can do what they please within them
Relative peace until rise of Napoleon → Congress of Vienna (1814) → established system of Concert of Europe, which held influence until unification of Germany (1871)
Period of imperialism (“century of humiliation”) in China with Opium Wars, lasting till Mao → still shapes how Chinese interact with the world
Rise of Britain to dominance through resources of colonies, trade, strong navy
World War I ← interplay of rising (Britain, Germany) and declining (Ottoman, Russia) powers
From World War I Through World War II (1914-1945)
Aftermath of WWI → rise self-determination in E Europe, nationalism there and in places where people did not feel represented; Germany burdened by reparations
Great Depression felt worldwide
Response to totalitarianism = appeasement; failure of League of Nations; US isolationism
Unlike WWI, outbreak of WWII became inevitable: Germany and Japan → aggression that could not be accommodated by existing order
The Cold War (1945-1989)
Competition between US & USSR fueled by ideology, objectives wrt rest of the world
Conference at Yalta (1945 w FDR, Stalin, Churchill) → example of how US presidents falsely believed their personal relationships with foreign leaders could solve intractable political problems
US shifted from isolationism to supporting W Europe (Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan); containment of communism (developed by Kennan)
Wave of decolonization in Asia, Africa, Middle East
Despite conflicts in Korea/Vietnam, Cold War prevented from escalating by: balance of military powers (NATO vs Warsaw Pact), mutually-assured destruction, arms control, limits on how much either side tried to interfere with the other
Détente = relaxation of tensions (1989-1991): in part bc weakness of USSR, but also constant efforts of US, HW Bush being careful to not humiliate Communist leaders
The Post-Cold War Era (1988-Present)
Maintenance of NATO → continued isolation of Russia
Lots of messiness over Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine: when does the UN gain authority to protect citizens from their own govt?
9/11 → age of global terrorism, counterterrorism
Financial crisis of 2007 → brought economic inequality in the developed world to focus, increased populism, disaffection w capitalism
Other trends
Revival of friction btw US and China/Russia— difficult situation with China because integrated in global economy, must balance cooperation with competition
Emergence of global challenges requiring (and not getting) international response— climate change, regulation of cyberspace, actual outer space
Part II: Regions of the World
Europe
Unique because of relative wealth, number of democracies, peace/stability
Due in part to NATO, European integration
Path to EU began after WWII, with integration of coal/steel industries across multiple countries to make mutually dependent and prevent war
Post-Cold War challenges
Ongoing ethnic conflict in newly independent Eastern Eur countries
Debate over how much integration is desired, both politically and economically (ex. Brexit)
Slowing of economic growth due to aging population, lack of overarching fiscal policy (taxes and spending)
Tensions with Russia as NATO shifted its role to interventionary force, expanded to include newly independent former Soviet states
East Asia and the Pacific
Very diverse in terms of population, political systems
Steady improvement in economic performance, after initially dealing with Vietnam & Korean Wars: driven by political stability, culture of hard work, investment in education, free trade
“Asian Tigers” = HK, SK, Taiwan, Singapore
Role of the US: development of professional militaries, support of free trade → export-led growth, support of democracy & human rights
Geopolitical challenges (all affected by developments in Sino-American relations)
Balance of power of China vs Japan
Territorial disputes btw China, Russia, Japan in South China Sea
Power politics with China/India/Pakistan
What to do about Taiwan
Korean Peninsula
South Asia
Dynamics dominated by India, India-Pakistani relations, shadow of British colonialism
Densely populated region, large Muslim and Hindu populations, very little economic integration
Central Asia (-stans) best considered separately, in the context of USSR
Economic development in many countries, but not at same rate as East Asia
Ongoing conflicts
Instability in Afghanistan (US intervention)
Dealing with other poverty and inequality— home to two of poorest nations (Pakistan, Afghanistan)
The Middle East
Three groups of countries: Egypt/North Africa, Levant (Israel, Jordan…), Arabian peninsula; predominantly Muslim except Israel
Modest in terms of land, population, economy, human rights, but outsized influence in world affairs bc:
Energy resources (oil and natural gas)
Religious significance w Jerusalem
Violence— large number of terrorist attacks, paramilitary groups not controlled by government
Israel-Palestine conflict
Context on Iran-Iraq tensions
Iran = one of few non-Arab countries in the region— Persian, mainly Shia; supported by US and ruled by Shah until overthrow by religious leader in 1978
Iraq = Arab, on paper has all qualities for success, but authoritarian rule of Saddam Hussein, violence vs Shia majority and Kurds (group of Sunni with Persian roots), overall internal strife prevented this
Rivalry and war between the two; US invasion of Iraq ultimately benefited Iran → regional power supporting local Shia populations, raising concern from Saudis abs the rest
The Arab Spring → did not pan out as hoped; failure of US to intervene → end of primacy in region
Overall, no balance of power → lots of internal conflict and violence
Sub-Saharan Africa
Diverse in many regards, and not a clear boundary btw this group and more Arab-identifying Northern Africa
Rapid decolonization in 1960s led to conflict in establishing stability, self-rule → region characterized more by internal strife than geopolitics
Mixed when it comes to economics
Decrease in relative number of people living in extreme poverty, but increase in absolute number (Sane with illiteracy)
Not much tax collection, extensive corruption, little widespread access to electricity
Negligible intra-African trade
Rapidly growing and young population, but not supported by adequate healthcare system or economic opportunities
Some tentative progress in democracy
The Americas
Obviously dominated by US, but even without, important bc size of export market, energy resources
Lack of geopolitics = advantageous for US bc can focus more abroad, but many countries internally racked by violence
Historically, first age of colonisation, then US intervention with Monroe Doctrine, venue of Cold War conflict
Contemporary issues
Political, economic, social crises in Venezuela, violence and corruption Brazil, MX, etc.
The above contributing to forced migration to US, with all the accompanying issues
Will be important to deal with internal security, promote trade among continent, protect the Amazon
Part III: The Global Era
Globalization = flow of everything across the world and across borders: people, information, viruses, CO2
Has good and bad consequences, some aspects can be more controlled (ex. protecting borders, tariffs), but can’t reject that it is the reality
Interconnectedness, interdependence
Terrorism (& counterterrorism) = intentional use of violence vs civilians to pursue political objectives; not carried out by a state (otherwise it’s war)
Nuclear proliferation: usually refers to a country adding new class or category of weapons
Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 meant to prevent this, but limited in what it can actually do
Work to develop nuclear reactors that can provide energy without materials for weapons
Climate change → all the usual things, but refugee crisis is especially worth noting
Migration: movement of people within and across borders
Can be defined to be just for voluntary reasons (ex. economic opportunity), but growing numbers (1% of world population) of forcible displaced people (escaping violence or persecution)
Challenge will likely be met with local and national efforts, bc little success with coordinated international response
Internet, cyberspace, cybersecurity
Trade-off between collective security and individual privacy
Global health:
Comprises 10% economic output overall, and 18% in US
Definite progress recently, but still lots inequality, lack of consensus on priorities
Increasing impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs: diabetes, cancer, CV disease)
Trade & investment
Global trade → expands market, availability of goods, allows for specialization, usually better prices
Countries with stronger currency → more spending power, more imports, trade deficits
Hard to keep track of net imports and exports bc global supply chain: products made in many diff countries
Also has political advantage of making countries more interdependent, less likely to go to war
“Free” and “fair” trade don’t necessarily mean balanced, but rather that true cost of good/service is being reflected
Barriers to free trade = tariffs, quotas or bans, subsidies, currency manipulation, “dumping” of exports at low cost, not respecting intellectual property, export controls (usually for national security reasons)
Currency & monetary policy
Monetary policy = actions of a central bank like regulating money supply by buying and selling bonds, adjusting interest rates to influence inflation
Fiscal policy (government spending, taxes), trade policy also affect pace of economic activity, but controlled by executive/legislative branches, not independent central banks
Currently, the dollar = foundational unit of global economy; not ideal, but kind of the only option
Development → widely used but ill-defined term meant to capture more than just economic growth
Part IV: Order and Disorder
Order = degree to which widespread rules govern international relations, degree to which the rules are buffered against change
Can reframe much of history in these terms, at global and regional levels: order → peace & prosperity, disorder → conflict, war
Sovereignty, self-determination, balance of power → factors in determining order at geopolitical scale
Alliances → formal obligations to protect each other’s security; can strengthen or undermine order
Weaker members generally have to concede to stronger ones, but benefit by maintaining autonomy as a state
Stronger states may be drawn into conflict, but can prevent armament of its smaller allies by offering their own military support
Alternatives = international organizations, coalitions (but generally also much more ineffective
International society = more than just a system; also affected by prevalence of democracy, degree of economic interdependence, extent of global governance, respect for international law
War between countries = obvious sign of breakdown of order
No hard definition of what counts as war in terms of scale, length, etc.
Preventative (against a perceived gathering threat to block it from emerging) vs preemptive (throwing the first punch)
Currently much more civil war then interstate war (trend since WWII)
Internal instability & war within countries
Fragile/weak states = unable to perform basic governing duties like internal security, taxes, infrastructure, education; home over 20% of population (Mexico, Pakistan); at more extreme, turn into failed states (Somalia, Syria, Venezuela)
Civil wars can be of secession or succession; more common in heterogenous societies, where corruption is widespread, low education levels
Many possible policy responses, all with their own caveats: diplomacy, economic incentives, sanctions, military intervention, partition, nation-building
The liberal world order: lead by US, promoting free trade and democracy
Coming to an end with relative weakening of US and lack of willingness to play its traditional role
Failure of institutions like the UN to adapt to shifting balance of power (China, Russia)
Emergence of nationalism, populism, authoritarianism
Need for new form of multilateralism, led by US, to address new global challenges (ultimately no better alternative— would you rather China lead the world, or continue on the trend of weak coordination like now?)